Bank Lending Rate
The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee has confirmed that the Bank Base Rate is to remain at 0.5% for a further month. It has been at this very low level for over 5½ years – a record period.
Source: Bank of England
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HOUSE PRICE INDICES – some show actual prices and others show asking prices.
This month the average house price ranges from 177k (Land Registry) to 277k (Acadata), with varying movements in prices across the indices.
ONS House Price Index figures.
Figures for the year to September 2014, published by the Office for National Statistics on 18th November 2014, show that house prices increased by 12.1% over the year, to an average of £273k. This is a 0.5% increase over the month after seasonal adjustment. Excluding London and the South East, the average house price rose by 9.1% over the year to £208k.
First-time buyers’ average house price paid in September was £209k. Over the year, this is an increase of 13.3%. Existing owners paid an average of £314k, an increase of 11.5% over the year.
The average price paid for a new-build dwelling was £251k in September, which is an increase of 10.3% from last year. The average price paid for a pre-owned building was £275k, which is 12.2% higher than the previous year.
Source: ONS
Land Registry’s Property Prices in England and Wales
The Average price of a property in England and Wales was £177,377 at the end of October 2014, according to the report published on 28th November 2014.
The Monthly change in October was a rise of 0.1%.
The Annual change to end of October was a rise of 7.7%.
Source: Land Registry
Halifax House Price Index figures.
The average price of a house by the end of October 2014 was £186,135, according to the Halifax House Price Index published 6th November 2014. House prices in October were 0.4% lower than in September, but the quarterly figure was up by 0.8%. The seasonally adjusted figures show that house prices are 8.8% higher than at this time last year, measured by the average for the latest quarter against the same period a year earlier.
Source: Halifax
Nationwide House Price Index figures
Nationwide House Price Index figures published on 30th November 2014 showed that the average cost of a home in the UK, after seasonal adjustment, was £189,388 during the month of November. This is an increase from October of 0.3% after seasonal adjustment, and an annual rise of 8.5%. The 3 month on 3 month change is an increase of 0.9%.
Source: Nationwide
Rightmove House Price Index figures
Rightmove’s November survey (published 17th November 2014) shows the asking price of a typical UK property in the period from 12th October to 8th November 2014 was £267,127, a fall of 1.7% on the previous month. House asking prices are 8.5% higher than a year ago.
Source: Rightmove
Acadata House Price Index figures
LSL Property Services/Acadata October figures, published 14th November 2014, show that the average house price in England and Wales was £277,390 in the month. This is a 0.7% increase from September, and a 10.5% rise since last October. Excluding London and the South East, the annual rise was 5.0%.
Source: Acadata Ltd
Land Registry figures including Repossessions.
The headline figures in the October 2014 report are altered when repossession data is included – the average house price in October is then £176,614: a 0.1% rise from last month and 8.1% up on last year.
In the quarter from May to August ’14, the number of repossessions averaged 856 per month. In the same period last year, the average was 1,329 per month -Â a fall of 35.6%.
There was a total reduction in the number of repossession sales over the year to August 2014 of 42% – 1,301 to 751. Regional analysis shows that at the extremes, the North East had 24% fewer repossession sales compared to last August, whereas London had 58% fewer.
Source: Land Registry
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HOUSE PRICES ANALYSED REGIONALLY.
The recent increases in London are still slowing down, Northern Ireland’s prices are starting to rise, but Wales is still not picking up from the trough of 2007-8.
ONS House Price Index figures by country.
The average house price in England in September 2014 was £285k, £172k in Wales, £143k in Northern Ireland and £197k in Scotland.
Over the past year, England’s average house price rise was 12.5%, Scotland’s was 7.6%, Wales’ was 5.8% and Northern Ireland’s prices rose by 10.9%.
Splitting England into regions, London’s prices rose by 18.8% over the year to an average of £508k, while the smallest rise was 5.8% in Wales to an average of £172k.
Source: ONS
Regional trends in Rightmove Estate Agents Asking House Prices in England and Wales.
Rightmove’s November survey showing the asking price of a typical UK property in the period 12th October to 8th November 2014 broken down by region.
Only two regions saw an increase this month – the larger monthly increase was in Greater London, where asking prices rose by 0.8% over the period from £596,692 to £601,180. The other one is East Anglia, where prices rose by 0.7% over the four weeks from 246.396 to £248,205. The annual changes there were a rise of 16.2% and 9.8% respectively – the first and third highest annual increases.
The largest monthly decrease was in the South West, where average prices fell by 3.9% from £284,006 to £272,834. The annual change here was a rise of 6.4%.
The largest annual rise was in London (see paragraph above). Second largest was in the South East, where prices have risen 11.1% from £312,087 last November to £346,803 this November. The monthly change was a fall of 2.5%.
The smallest annual rise (there were no decreases) was in Wales, where prices increased by 1.1% to £166,992.
Source: Rightmove
Regional Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in England and Wales.
The Land Registry’s October survey shows the price of a typical UK property per region as follows:
None of the ten regions had a drop in prices over the year, but four experienced a drop in the month.
The largest monthly increase was once again in the East of England, which saw an increase over the month of 1.6%, bringing the average house price in the region to £198,338. This is 11.0% higher than this time last year.
The largest monthly decrease in price was the North East, where the average price fell by 2.7% to £97,356. The annual increase is 2.7% which is the second smallest annual increase.
London had the largest annual increase – 18.6% to an average of £460,060, although the monthly increase was 0.7%.
Wales saw the smallest annual rise – up 2.0% to £118,437, which is down 0.9% on last month.
Source: Land Registry
Analysis of Acadata HPI by region
The latest figures show that for the month of September 2014, two of the ten regions specified had an decrease in house prices, and one stayed the same.
Figures for England and Wales overall show an average house price in September of £275,364, which is a 0.3% increase over the month and an 10.4% increase over the year.
The largest rise in the month was the North West – up 0.8% to an average of £164,259. The annual rise here was 4.1%.
The North saw the larger drop in the month – down 0.2% to £148,686. This is 3.2% higher than last year, which (along with two other regions – see below) is the smallest of the annual changes. East Anglia saw the only other drop – down 0.1% to £224,135, with a 6.6% increase over the year.
Wales saw no significant change over the month – up £8 to an average of £160,437.
Annually, London once again saw the highest rise – 18.6% to £576,961 (up 0.4% over the month) , and the second highest was the South East – up 10.9% to an average of £318,769 which is 0.3% higher than last month.
The regions with the smallest annual rise of 3.2% are the North (see above), Wales (see above) and Yorkshire & Humber, where the average house price is now £163,719 – a rise of 0.1% on last month.
Source: Acadata
Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in England and Wales by County/Unitary Authority.
The Land Registry’s October survey shows the prices of a typical UK property per county or unitary authority as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is in Rutland, where the average price is up by 3.3% to £224,767. This is 7.4% higher than last year.
The greatest monthly decrease in price was 2.5% in Merthyr Tydfil, where the average price is now £60,282 This is 11.2% lower than last year, the largest annual fall.
Greater London saw the largest annual price rise (see previous paragraph).
Of the 101 counties/unitary authorities defined, 12 saw movement of only 0.1% including two seeing zero price movement in the month (Pembrokeshire and South Gloucestershire).
Source: Land Registry
Analysis of Acadata HPI data by County/Unitary Authority
The unitary authority with the largest increase in house prices in September 2014 was Bournemouth where average prices rose by 5.7% to an average of £256,229. The annual change there was a rise of 13.8%.
The next largest monthly increase was in Blaenau Gwent where prices rose by 4.9% to £87,273, and the annual rise was 5.3%. (Last month, Blaenau Gwent saw the largest decrease in the month, perhaps showing the volatility of prices in smaller regions.)
The Vale of Glamorgan saw the largest decrease in average prices in the month – down 2.3% to £215,006. The annual change there was a rise of 4.5%. Following closely, Warrington saw a fall of 2.1% in the month. The annual change was a rise of 3.0% (to £191,256). (Warrington saw the second largest increase last month.)
Windsor and Maidenhead once again saw the largest annual increase (21.1% to £536,858), but Slough was not far behind with a rise of 18.3% over the year to £260,568. The monthly changes were a fall of 0.4% and a rise of 0.1%. respectively.
The largest annual decrease was in Merthyr Tydfil, where prices fell by 3.7% to £102,907, which is 0.6% lower than last month. Next was Bridgend, where prices fell by 2.9% over the year to £140,701. There was a fall of 0.1% in the month here.
Source: Acadata
Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices by Metropolitan District.
The Land Registry’s October survey shows the average prices of property by Metropolitan District as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase was in Sandwell, where the average prices were up by 2.4% to £91,686. This is 0.8% higher than last year.
The largest fall in the month was in Knowsley - average prices fell by 1.6% to £101,105, which is 4.6% higher than last year.
The largest annual rise is once again in Bury, where prices rose by 9.5% to an average of £116,832. However, this is 1.4% higher than last month.
The only annual decrease in price was yet again in Barnsley, where prices fell by 1.1% to an average of £85,429. This is 0.6% higher than last month.
Source: Land Registry
Rightmove’s analysis of asking prices by London Borough.
In the period 12th October to 8th November 2014, the largest increase in asking prices was in the borough of Camden, where prices rose by 5.2% to £1,071,358.
The largest decrease in asking prices were in Bromley and Bexley, where they both fell by 1.4% in the period to £416,468 and £271,917 respectively.
Annually, the largest increase was in Hackney, where prices rose by 27.2% over the year, to an average of £768,909, which is a rise of 3.6% over the month.
Kensington and Chelsea was once again the only borough to see a fall over the year – 3.7% down to an average of £2,212,845.
Source: Rightmove
Acadata data analysed by London Borough
Over the month of September 2014, overall house prices in London increased by 0.4% to £576,961. Over the year, the change is a 18.6% rise.
Southwark had the largest monthly rise: up 4.3% to an average of £564,313. The annual change here was a rise of 24.8%.
Next in line, both Sutton and Haringey prices rose by 3.0% in the month to £347,618 and £555,741 respectively, and the annual rises were 18.8% and 16.2%.
Richmond-upon-Thames saw the largest decrease this month – down 1.7% to £756,526. However, this is 16.2% higher than last year.
The largest annual rise was in Waltham Forest where prices have risen by 27.4% since last September. Prices rose by 1.9% over the month here.
The smallest rise over the year was in Hounslow, where prices rose by 6.0% to an average of £460,964 – a monthly fall of 1.0%.
Barking & Dagenham remains the cheapest borough in terms of house prices at an average of £214,854, although this is a rise of 0.3% since last month, and of 17.1% since last year.
Source: Acadata
Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in Greater London
The Land Registry’s October survey shows the average prices of property per London Borough as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is in Hackney - the borough saw a rise of 2.3% in the month. The average price is now £594,057, which is 22.5% higher than last year.
Kensington & Chelsea saw the larger of only two average house price falls - 2.5% from last month to £1,280,170, although the annual change was a rise of 9.5%, the smallest of the annual changes. (Camden was the only other borough to see a fall over the month – 0.3% to £825,764, 20.2% higher than last year.)
The biggest annual rise was yet again in Lambeth, where prices rose by 27.9% to £540,819, which is 0.9% higher than last month.
Source: Land Registry
Hometrack UK Cities HPI – (replaces their Hometrack Monthly House Price Survey)
Hometrack say that “the 20 cities in this new house price index cover a land area that is less than 5% of the UK but the cities contain over 40% of the value of UK housing and a similar proportion of all UK jobs†and that “the definition of London ‘City’ is larger than the London Government Region. The ‘City definition extends further out into London’s travel to work area capturing the commuter areas outside the 33 London Boroughs. The London ‘City’ area covers 44 local authorities and better represents the housing markets that are influenced by the London economy.”
October’s survey (published 21st November 2014) gives an average UK house price of £185,700. The annual house price inflation was 9.2% in October. Compared to the peak in 2007, this is 0.9% higher.
Only 6 of the 20 cities show annual growth above the UK average, all of them in the south of England.
London (£402,800) saw the largest increase of 17.3% over the year, followed by Bristol (13.2% to £217,300), with Cambridge (£331,000) not far behind on 12.2%. The smallest increase was 5.5% in both Glasgow (£110,100) and Liverpool (£109,700).
This is the first time in ten years that all cities have recorded annual growth in house prices in excess of 5%.
Relative to the peak of 2007, London is 30.2% above, and Cambridge is 25.6% above.. At the other end of the scale, Belfast (£114,900) is still 50.2% below the peak price.
Source: Hometrack
RICS Survey Overview.
The RICS Residential Market Survey for October 2014 (published 13th November 2014) says that “demand and sales volumes continue to fall”, while the “market [is] in [the] midst of a temporary slowdownâ€.
Northern Ireland saw the largest price increases over the month, whilst London saw the only decrease – this is the same situation as last month.
Scotland had the highest level of agreed sales in October by quite a large margin, whereas the West Midlands and the North West saw the largest falls.
Scotland, Northern Ireland and the North of England had the only positive levels of new buyer enquiries in the month whereas London saw the largest drop.
The highest levels of new vendor instructions were in Scotland and the North, and the lowest in the North West.
Source: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors
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PROPERTY TYPES – The prices of all types of property are rising over the long-term, with terraced properties continuing to be cheapest option.
Rightmove’s Asking Prices by Property Type
In the year to 8th November 2014, the average change over all property types was an increase of 8.5%. All types of property (which Rightmove classify) are priced higher than last year.
- Flats’ and Apartments’ asking prices rose by 12.6% to £241,035.
- Terraced properties’ prices rose by 10.3% to £213,630.
- Detached property asking prices rose by 7.4% to £388,725.
- Semi-Detached properties’ prices rose by 8.6% to £223,603.
Source: Rightmove
Land Registry’s Average Prices by Property Type
The Land Registry’s October average price figures analysed by property type show that the prices over all types of property rose by 7.7% in the year to the end of October 2014. The average price is now £177,377.
- Flats & Maisonette properties rose by 9.4% to £170,670
- Terraced properties rose by 7.6% to £133,350
- Detached properties rose by 6.8% to £278,723
- Semi-detached properties rose by 7.2% to £167,525
Source: Land Registry
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MORTGAGE FIGURES
New Mortgages granted – September Actual Figures
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that 58,600 loans were made in September for house purchase, worth £10.0 billion. This is lower than August’s in number by 7.0% and in value by 8.3%. However, these figures are up 13.1% and 20.5% (respectively) on last September’s figures.
Of these, first-time buyer loans totalled 26,800, valued at £4.0 billion, which is down 3.2% in number and i2.4% n value on last month. This is 16.0% higher in number and 25.0% higher in value, compared to last year.
Home movers’ loans totalled £6.0 billion, and numbered 31,700. These figures are down 9.9% in terms of number, and 11.8% in value on last month, but are up 10.8% in number and 17.6% in value on last year.
The number and value of remortgage loans rose in the month – 28,300 loans worth £4.4 billion were made in September. These figures are 19.9% higher than last month’s in terms of volume and 22.2% up in value. However, over the year, these figures are down by 12.4% in number and down 6.4% in value.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders
New Mortgages granted – October Estimates
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reported on 20th November that October’s estimated figure for gross mortgage lending in the UK would be £19 billion. This is 5% higher than last month’s figure, and a rise of 8% on last October’s £17.5 billion.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders
New Mortgages granted – Q3 2014 Figures
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that in the third quarter of 2014, gross lending for house purchase totalled £32.4 billion, which is up by 13% on the last quarter, and by 21% on the third quarter last year. The loans numbered 188,000, which 8% higher than Q2 and 12% higher than Q3 2013.
84,100 loans were made to first-time buyers, worth £12.5 billion. This is 3% higher than Q2’s in number and 7% higher in value. These figures are up 15% and 24% (respectively) on Q3 2013.
Home movers’ loans totalled £19.8 billion, and numbered 103,600. These figures are up 12% in terms of number, and 16% in value on Q2, and are up 10% in number and 19% in value on Q3 last year.
The number of remortgage loans rose by 2% in the quarter to 77,200, but fell 13% on Q3 2013. In terms of value, the total is £11.9 billion, which is 3% higher than last quarter and up 6% on the same quarter last year.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders
Mortgage Arrears and Homes Repossessions – Q3 2014
The number of UK mortgages in arrears continues to fall – it now stands at 1.12% of all mortgages.
During Q3 2014, 125,100 mortgages were in arrears, i.e. behind by more than 2.5% of the mortgage balance. These are the lowest figures since Q1 2008. By comparison, 1.33% of mortgages were in arrears a year ago.
The number of repossessions in the quarter was 5,000 (0.04%), down from 5,400 (0.05%) in Q2 and 7,200 (0.06%)in Q3 2013.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders
Mortgages – First-time buyers and home-movers – September 2014.
The latest figures from CML (published 11th November ’14) show that first-time buyers’ mortgages average 83% loan-to-value, and are 3.40 times income. The proportion of their income that buyers are paying on interest stands at 12.0%, but this rises to 19.6% when including capital repayments.
For home-movers, the loan-to-value ratio is 70%, at 3.06 times income. Income proportion spent on interest is 9.1%, which rises to 18.8% when including capital repayments.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders
Regional analysis of first-time buyers’ mortgages in Q3 2014
The latest figures from CML show that the number of loans to first-time buyers in Q3 is still increasing throughout the UK.
In Greater London, there were 13,300 first-time buyer loans (worth £3.3 billion) made in Q3. This is 8% higher than Q2 and 6% higher than Q3 2013 in number, and up 11% and 16% in value.
London’s first-time buyers borrowed 3.86 times gross income (whereas the UK average is 3.41 times), and the typical loan size was £221,997. 21% of their gross income goes towards capital and interest payments, compared to the UK average of 19.6%.
In Northern Ireland, the number of loans to first-time buyers totalled 2,000 (worth £170 million) – much the same number and value as Q2 but 25% and 42% higher than Q3 last year. First-time buyers here borrow 2.73 times gross income, typically borrowing £80k. These buyers spend 16.2% of their gross income on capital and interest repayments.
Scottish first-time buyers spend 17.3% on capital and interest, typically using 2.94 times gross income to secure the £98,307 loan. There were 7,500 loans in Q3 (down 1% on the previous quarter but 15% higher than the same quarter last year) worth £810 million (up 1% on Q2 and up 23% on Q3 2013).
Welsh first-time buyers’ loans are typically £100,800 – 3.23 times gross income. They spend 18.2% of gross income on capital and interest payments. There were 3,300 first-time buyer loans in Wales in Q3, 3% down on Q2 and up 18% on Q3 2013. The value is £350 million – unchanged form last quarter but 21% higher than Q3 last year.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders
Buy-to-Let Mortgages
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that during September 2014, the total advanced on buy-to-let mortgages was £2.5 billion (18,100 loans). This is higher than August’s in number by 15.3% and in value by 13.6%, and higher than last September’s by 24.0% and 31.6% respectively.
51% of the buy-to-let loans were for remortgage: 9,260 loans worth £1.37 billion – an increase of 25.6% in number, and 23.4% in value on the previous month. Compared to last September, the figures are up 35.2% in number and up 38.4% in value.
Buy-to-Let loans for house purchase totalled 8,760 worth £1.09 billion, a rise of 6.6% in number and 7.9% in value on last month, and a rise of 14.7% in number and 25.3% in value on September 2013.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders
Outstanding Mortgage Debt
Outstanding secured (on dwellings) lending in the UK totalled £1.294 trillion at the end of September 2014. This is up from the previous September’s £1,271 billion.
The average outstanding mortgage for the 11.1m households who currently have mortgages is estimated at £116,035 in September 2014.
Source: The Money Charity
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TRANSACTION VOLUMES & OTHER INFORMATION
Latest Property Sales Volumes by price range
According to the Land Registry’s October Report, in August 2014, 82,415 sales transactions took place in England and Wales, and 10,162 in London. This represents a rise of 4% in England & Wales, and a fall of 9% in London since last August’s figures, (82,415 and 11,174 respectively).
Compared to last August, in the price bracket of over £1 million, the sales volume in London increased from 754 to 855 – a rise of 13%, and in England & Wales it increased from 1,185 to 1,363 – a rise of 15%.
At the other end of the market (up to £250k), the volume fell by 1.5% in England & Wales (from 55,860 last August to 55,024 this August), and it fell by 36.5% in London (from 3,564 to 2,264 in the same period).
Source: Land Registry
Land Registry Quarterly Sales Volumes
In the quarter from May to August 2014 (the latest for which figures are available), the average number of property transactions per month was 80,596. This is up 12.8% on the same period a year ago, when the average was 71,463 sales per month.
Source: Land Registry
LSL Acadata – Analysis of Housing Transactions
In Q3 2013 there were 210,276 housing transactions in England and Wales. In Q3 2014, there were 242,561 – a rise of 15.4%. Regionally, the West Midlands saw the largest rise – up 22.4% to 21,188. Greater London saw the smallest increase – up 2.7% to 30,978. Analysed by property type, the volume of transactions involving flats in England and Wales has increased by 22.7% between Q3 2013 and Q3 2014 (from 37,715 to 46,287), whereas the volume of semi-detached properties only rose by 10.2%. The other property types – detached and terraced – rose by 13.9% and 17.0% respectively. In Greater London, the volume of transactions involving flats rose by 8.4% in the same period to 16,851. However, the volume for semi-s fell by 10.6% to 4,143.
Source: Acadata Ltd
NHBC Figures for new homes
On 26th November, NHBC released figures for new homes registered for the 3 month period August to October 2014.
33,550 new homes were started in the rolling quarter, of which 26,100 were in the Private Sector. The number of private homes increased by 9% but the number of affordable homes decreased by 24% on same quarter the year before, giving an overall decrease of 0.6%.
In the same three month period, there were 27,700 completions, 5.7% more than the same quarter last year. The number of completed private homes increased by 5.2% and the number of affordable homes completed increased by 7.3%, compared to the same quarter in 2013.
Over the year to October 2014, 133,600 houses were started, which is 11.2% up on last year. Completions over the year numbered 118,900, which is 12.5% up on the previous year.
Source: NHBC
Next Monthly Market Fact File due in January 2015.