Bank Lending Rate
The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee has confirmed that the Bank Base Rate is to remain at 0.5% for a further month. It has been at this very low level for over five years – a record period.
Source: Bank of England
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HOUSE PRICE INDICES – some show actual prices and others show asking prices.
This month the average house price ranges from 172k (Land Registry) to 270k (Rightmove), with only small movements in prices across the indices.
ONS House Price Index figures
Figures for the year to May 2014, published by the Office for National Statistics on 15th July 2014, show that house prices increased by 10.5% over the year, to an average of £262k. This is a 0.8% increase over the month after seasonal adjustment. Excluding London and the South East, the average house price rose by 6.4% to £200k.
First-time buyers’ average house price paid in May was £202k. Over the year, this is an increase of 11.3%. Existing owners paid an average of £301k in May, an increase of 10.1% over the year.
The average price paid for a new-build dwelling was £246k in May, which is an increase of 6.9% from last May. The average price paid for a pre-owned building was £263k, which is 10.7% higher than the previous year.
Source: ONS
Land Registry’s Property Prices in England and Wales
The Average price of a property in England and Wales is now £172,011 as at the end of June 2014, according to the report published on 28th July 2014.
The Monthly change in June was so small as to be statistically insignificant..
The Annual change to end of June was a rise of 6.4%.
Source: Land Registry
Halifax House Price Index figures
The average price of a house by the end of June 2014 was £183,462, according to the Halifax House Price Index published 9th July 2014. House prices in June were 0.6% lower than in May, and the quarterly figure was up by 2.3%. The seasonally adjusted figures show that house prices are 8.8% higher than at this time last year, measured by the average for the latest quarter against the same period a year earlier.
Source: Halifax
Nationwide House Price Index figures
Nationwide House Price Index figures published on 31st July 2014 showed that the average cost of a home in the UK, after seasonal adjustment, was £188,949 during the month of July. This is an increase from June of just £46 which, after seasonal adjustment, is 0.1%, and an annual rise of 10.6%. This is the fifteenth consecutive month which has seen a rise in house prices.
Source: Nationwide
Rightmove House Price Index figures
Rightmove’s July survey (published 21st July 2014) shows the asking price of a typical UK property in the period from 9th June to 12th July 2014 was £270,159, a drop of 0.8% on the previous month. House asking prices are 6.5% higher than a year ago.
Source: Rightmove
Acadata House Price Index figures
LSL Property Services/Acadata May figures, published 11th July 2014, show that the average house price in England and Wales was £268,637 in the month. This is a 0.7% increase from May, but a 9.6% rise since last June.
Source: Acadata Ltd
Land Registry figures including Repossessions
The headline figures in the June 2014 report are altered when repossession data is included – the average house price in June is then £171,068: no significant change from May and 6.9% up on June 2013.
In the quarter from January to April ’14, the number of repossessions averaged 995 per month. In the same period last year, the average was 1,413 per month.
There was a total reduction in the number of repossession sales over the year to April 2014 of 30% – 1,285 to 898. Regional analysis shows that at the extremes, the West Midlands had 43% fewer repossession sales compared to last April, whereas Wales and the North West both had 14% fewer.
Source: Land Registry
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HOUSE PRICES ANALYSED REGIONALLY
Greater London and the South East consistently out-perform other regions in England and Wales
ONS House Price Index regional figures
The average house price in England in May 2014 was £274k, £166k in Wales, £134k in Northern Ireland and £188k in Scotland.
Over the year to May 2014, England’s average house price rise was 11.0%, Scotland’s was 3.5% and Wales’ was 3.6%. Northern Ireland’s prices fell by 0.7%.
Splitting England into regions, London’s prices rose by 20.1% over the year to an average of £492k, while the smallest rise was 3.9% in the North West to an average of £150k.
Source: ONS
Regional trends in Rightmove Estate Agents Asking House Prices in England and Wales
Rightmove’s July survey shows the asking price of a typical UK property in the period 9th June to 12th July 2014 was £270,159
The largest monthly increase was in East Anglia, where asking prices rose by 0.7% over the period from £249,483 to £251,214. The annual change there was a rise of 9.6% – the largest monthly increase outside London..
The largest monthly decrease was in the North and the East Midlands, where average prices fell by 1.9% in each region, from £151,496 to £148,572 and from £177,712 to £174,381 respectively. The annual changes there were a fall of 2.2% (the largest annual fall) and a rise of 0.5% respectively.
The largest annual rise was Greater London, where prices rose by 13.9% over the year from £515,379 to an average of £587,174. The monthly change was a decrease of 0.4%.
Only two regions saw an annual fall – the North (see above) and the North West, where prices fell by 0.5% over the year, from £170,452 to £169,621. The monthly change was a rise of 0.2%.
Source: Rightmove
Regional Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in England and Wales
The Land Registry’s June survey shows the prices of a typical UK property per region as follows:
The largest monthly increase was in West Midlands, which saw an increase over the month of 1.9%, bringing the average house price in the region to £135,228. This is 4.7% higher than this time last year.
The largest monthly decrease in price was in Yorkshire & Humberside, where the average price fell 1.3% to £118,699, which is 3.4% higher than a year ago.
Annually, London’s price rise was the largest – 16.4% to an average of £437,608. The monthly change was a rise of only 0.1%.
No regions had a drop in prices over the year.
The smallest annual increase was in the North East which saw a rise of 0.8% over the year to £98,555 – a 1.0% drop on last month..
Source: Land Registry
Analysis of Acadata HPI by region
The latest figures show that for the year to May 2014, all of the ten regions specified had an increase in house prices. In the month, only Wales saw a drop.
Figures for England and Wales overall show an average house price in May of £266,737, which is a 1.0% increase over the month and an 8.8% increase over the year.
The largest rise in the month was in Greater London – up 2.1% to an average of £545,643. The annual rise here was 15.6% – the largest annual rise.
Wales saw the only drop in the month – down 0.3% to £157,958. However, this is 3.6% higher than last year – the smallest annual rise.
Source: Acadata
Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in England and Wales by County/Unitary authority
The Land Registry’s June survey shows the prices of a typical UK property per county or unitary authority as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is in Merthyr Tydfil, where the average price is up by 3.5% to £64,647. However, this is 5.3% lower than last year.
The greatest monthly decrease in price was 2.1% in both Blaenau Gwent and Torfaen, where the average prices are £67,681 and £101,238 respectively, which are 1.2% and 1.9% lower than last year.
Annually, Greater London saw the largest annual price rise (16.4% to an average of £437,608).
The largest annual fall was in Blackburn with Darwen, where prices fell by 8.2% to £67,457. This is 1.3% lower than May.
Of the 101 counties/unitary authorities defined, 50 saw movement of only half a percent or less with only six of them seeing zero price movement in the month. Stoke on Trent is the only one to have the average house price stay the same as last year.
Source: Land Registry
Analysis of Acadata HPI data by County/Unitary Authority
The unitary authority with the largest increase in house prices in May 2014 was Bournemouth, where average prices rose by 7.0% to £236,147. The annual change there was a rise of 3.1%. The next largest monthly increase was in Gwynedd, where prices rose by 4.2% to £162,562, and the annual rise was 4.2%.
Wrexham saw the largest decrease in average prices in the month – down 2.9% to £150,628. The annual change was a rise of 3.3%. Following closely, Carmarthenshire and the Isle of Anglesey both saw falls of 2.8% in the month.
Since May 2013, Poole has seen the largest increase – 23.3% to an average price of £326,158, although the monthly change here was a drop of 0.6%.
The largest annual decrease was yet again in Merthyr Tydfil, where prices fell by 9.0% to £97,991. This is 2.2% lower than last month.
Source: Acadata
Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices by Metropolitan District
The Land Registry’s June survey shows the average prices of property by Metropolitan District as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase was in South Tyneside, where the average prices were up by 2.3% to £101,759. This is 3.6% higher than last year.
The largest fall in the month was in Barnsley - average prices fell by 2.1% to £87,072. This is 2.4% higher than last year.
The largest annual rise is yet again in Oldham, where prices rose by 9.2% to an average of £83,335. However, this is unchanged from last month.
The greatest annual decrease in price was in St Helens, where prices fell by 3.4% to an average of £91,929. This is 1.7% lower than last month.
Source: Land Registry
Rightmove’s analysis of asking prices by London Borough
In the period 9th June to 12th July 2014, the largest increase in asking prices was in Barking & Dagenham, where they rose by 2.4% to an average of £257,891. The annual rise was 17.5%. This borough still has the cheapest average house price.
The largest decrease in asking prices was in Wandsworth, where they fell by 3.8% in the month to £857,802. However, they rose by 17.8% over the year.
Annually, the largest increase was once again in Tower Hamlets, where prices rose by 39.0% over the year, to an average of £620,923. The monthly change here was a fall of 1.6%.
The smallest annual rise was in Camden, where prices rose by only 0.8% over the year, but they fell by 1.9% last month.
No boroughs saw a fall in prices since last July.
Source: Rightmove
Acadata data analysed by London Borough
Over the month to May 2014, overall house prices in London increased by 2.1%. Over the year, the change is a 15.6% rise.
The City of Westminster had the largest monthly rise: up 5.5% to an average of £1,310,189. (This borough had the largest drop last month.) The annual change here was a drop of 0.2% – one of only 2 boroughs to see an annual fall.
Next in line, Haringey rose by 5.4% in the month to £500,425, and Greenwich rose by 5.3% to £375,789. The annual changes here were a rise of 18.0% and 17.6% respectively.
The City of London has gone from the largest increase last month to the largest decrease this month – down 8.2% to £819,920. This is 0.3% lower than last year, which is the other borough to see a decrease in the year.
Once again, Lambeth has the highest annual increase – 40.7% over the year to an average of £592,889, although the monthly change here was a rise of only 2.9%.
The most expensive London borough to buy property is still Kensington and Chelsea, where the average price is now £1,939,654 – 3.8% higher than last month and 27.6% higher that last year.
Barking & Dagenham remains the cheapest borough in terms of house prices at an average of £207,264, although this is a rise of 0.1% since last month, and of 10.8% since last year.
Source: Acadata
Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in Greater London
The Land Registry’s June survey shows the average prices of property per London Borough as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is in Hackney - the borough saw a rise of 4.2% in the month. The average price is now £574,922, which is 25.5% higher than last year.
The average house price in Enfield stayed the same as last month – £296,012. No boroughs saw a decrease over the month.
The biggest annual rise was yet again in Waltham Forest, where prices rose by 28.1% to £332,324, which is 0.4% higher than last month.
Hounslow saw the smallest annual rise of 8.0%, to £330,807. This borough saw a monthly rise of 1.2%.
Source: Land Registry
RICS Survey Overview
The RICS Residential Market Survey for June 2014 (published 10th July 2014) says that
“the growth in demand continues to outpace supply” and ” price momentum remains firm “.
The South East once again saw the largest price rises over the month, whilst the North saw the smallest.
The North West had the highest level of agreed sales in June, with every area seeing a rise except for London.
Yorkshire & Humberside once again had the highest level of new buyer enquiries in the month whereas London, East Anglia and the East Midlands saw a drop in numbers..
The highest level of new vendor instructions was by far and away in London. The other regions which saw a rise were Wales, the South West, Scotland, the North and North West. Everywhere else saw a decrease in new vendor instructions. East Anglia saw the largest decrease in the month, while Yorkshire & Humberside had only a slight fall.
Source: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors
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PROPERTY TYPES – The prices of all types of property are rising over the long-term, but fluctuating from month to month.
Rightmove’s Asking Prices by Property Type
In the year to 12th July 2014, the average change over all property types was an increase of 6.5%. All types of property (which Rightmove classify) are priced higher than last year.
- Flats’ and Apartments’ asking prices rose by 13.2% to £235,337.
- Terraced properties’ prices rose by 8.7% to £209,474.
- Detached property asking prices rose by 6.3% to £397,842.
- Semi-Detached properties’ prices rose by 8.0% to £223,159.
However, all types have fallen since last month, by 0.9%, 2.9%, 0.6% and 1.0% respectively.
Source: Rightmove
Land Registry’s Average Prices by Property Type
The Land Registry’s June average price figures analysed by property type show that the prices over all types of property rose by 6.4% in the year to the end of June 2014. The average price is now £172,011.
- Flats & Maisonette properties rose by 7.6% to £164,967
- Terraced properties rose by 6.3% to £129,486
- Detached properties rose by 5.6% to £270,496
- Semi-detached properties rose by 6.2% to £162,545.
Over the month, prices have fallen by 1.2% for Flats & Maisonettes, risen by 0.2% for Terraced and 0.6% for Detached properties, but have remained virtually the same for Semi-detached properties.
Source: Land Registry
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MORTGAGE FIGURES
Mortgage Lending by the Major UK Lenders
According to the latest quarterly publication from the Bank of England, (Trends in Lending July 2014, covering the quarter to May 2014), the major UK lenders comprising Banco Santander, Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group, Nationwide and Royal Bank of Scotland, the number of mortgage approvals for house purchase was 66.5k in March, 62.8k in April and 61.7k in May . Remortgaging numbered 32.0k in March, 31.1k in April and 29.2k in May. These figures are just over 10% down on last quarter.
Source: Bank of England
New Mortgages granted – May Actual Figures
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that 57,900 loans were made in May for house purchase, worth £9.6 billion. This is higher than April’s in number by 8.8% and in value by 9.1%. However, these figures are up 13.1% and 24.7% (respectively) than last May’s figures.
Of these, first-time buyer loans totalled 26,800, valued at £3.9 billion, which is up by 9.4% in number and 11.4% in value on last month. However, this is 18.6% higher in number and 30.0% higher in value, compared to last May’s figures.
Home movers’ loans totalled £5.7 billion, and numbered 31,100. These figures are up 8.4% in terms of number, and 7.5% in value on last month, and are up 9.1% in number and 21.3% in value on last May.
The number and value of remortgage loans fell in the month – 21,600 loans worth £3.3 billion were made in May. These figures are 17.9% lower than last month’s in terms of volume and down 17.5% in value. Over the year, these figures are down by 26.3% in number and 15.4% in value.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders
New Mortgages granted – June Estimates
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reported on 18th July that June’s estimated figure for gross mortgage lending in the UK would be £17.5 billion. This is 4% higher than last month’s figure, and a rise of 17% on last June’s £14.9 billion.
For the quarter (Q2 2014), the estimated mortgage lending totals £50.8 billion – 10% higher than Q1 2014 and 21% higher than Q2 2013.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders
Buy-to-Let Mortgages
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that during May 2014, the total advanced on buy-to-let mortgages was £2.2 billion (16,000 loans). This is higher than April by 3.9% in number and 4.8% in value, and an increase of 14.3% in number and 22.2% in value from a year ago.
44% of the buy-to-let loans were for remortgage: 7,100 loans worth £1.1 billion – a decrease of 1.4% in number, but the same in value on the previous month. This proportion has dropped from 47% last month.
Buy-to-Let loans for house purchase totalled 8,700 loans worth £1.1 billion, a rise of 7.4% in number and an increase of 10.0% in value on last month, and of 21.2% in number and 37.5% in value on May 2013.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders
Mortgages – First-time buyers and home-movers
The lastest figures from CML (published 18th July 2014) show that first-time buyers’ mortgages average 84% loan-to-value, and are 3.43 times income. The proportion of their income that the buyers are paying on interest stands at 11.7%, but this rises to 19.5% when including capital repayments.
For home-movers, the loan-to-value ratio is 73%, at 3.07 times income. Income proportion spent on interest is 8.9%, which rises to 18.8% when including capital repayments.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders
Outstanding Mortgage Debt
The average outstanding mortgage for the 11.2m households who currently have mortgages is estimated at £115,006 in May 2014.
Outstanding secured (on dwellings) lending in the UK totalled £1.284 trillion at the end of May 2014. This is up from the previous May’s £1,269 billion.
Source: The Money Charity
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TRANSACTION VOLUMES & OTHER INFORMATION
Latest Property Sales Volumes by price range
According to the Land Registry’s June Report, in April 2014, 66,659 sales transactions took place in England and Wales, and 8,912 in London. This represents a rise of 31% in England & Wales, and of 21% in London since last April’s figures, (51,022 and 7,378 respectively).
Compared to last April, in the price bracket of over £1 million, the sales volume in London increased from 516 to 695 – a rise of 35%, and in England & Wales it increased from 740 to 1,028 – a rise of 39%.
At the other end of the market (up to £250k), the volume rose by 24.1% in England & Wales (from 37,612 last April to 46,679 this April), but it fell by 6.1% in London (from 2,625 to 2,466 in the same period).
Source: Land Registry
Land Registry Quarterly Sales Volumes
In the quarter from January to April 2014 (the latest for which figures are available), the average number of property transactions per month was 65,679. This is up 35.2% on the same period a year ago, when the average was 48,597 sales per month.
Source: Land Registry
Hometrack Monthly House Price Survey Figures
Hometrack compile sample data monthly from thousands of Estate Agents in all 2,300 postcodes in England and Wales. The figures are weighted according to postcode, but not seasonally adjusted.
July’s survey (published 25th July 2014) shows that house prices increased by only 0.1% in the month – this is slightly lower than last month’s 0.3% and May’s 0.5%.
The average amount of time that a house is on the market has crept up 0.1 weeks to 6.0 weeks. Regionally, this ranges from 4.0 weeks in the South East to 8.5 weeks in the North East and North West – down from 10 weeks last month.
On average, 96.1% of the asking price is achieved, ranging from 97.5% in Greater London, down to 94.3% in the North West.
24% of postcode districts reported a price increase in July, a steady decrease from June’s 32% and May’s 42% The number of postcodes reporting a decrease is 1.5%.
Source: Hometrack
English Housing Survey Reports
The latest Households reports, published 23rd July 2014, analysed England’s Households for year ended March 2013. Of the estimated 22 million dwellings, 14.3 million (65%) were owner-occupied. 4 million (18%) were privately rented and 3.7 million (17%) were socially rented. This is the first time that private tenure has exceeded social tenure. Of the owner-occupied sector, half have a mortgage and half own the property outright.
61% of private renters and 23% of social renters said they anticipated buying a property of their own at some time. Among the social renters, 44% wanted to buy their current home, compared with 37% of them in the previous year.
The proportion of mortgagors under 35 has declined from 21% of mortgages in 2008-09 to 18% in 2012-13. Only 9% of owner-occupiers were under 35.
In 2012, 11% of all homes had one bedroom, and 27% had two bedrooms. 75% of all owner-occupied properties had three or more bedrooms, making it disproportionate with rented accommodation. New-build homes were generally smaller than older homes – 51% built after 2002 had one or two bedrooms.
The types of properties built after 2002 differed in quantity from those built prior to 2002. Before 2002, only 19% of properties built were flats – in the period after, 43% of new-builds were flats. However, semi-detached properties accounted for only 11% of new-builds after 2002, compared to 30% before. The proportion of terraced properties has dropped slightly from 29% to 24%, but detached houses has remained much the same – 22% to 23%.
Source: Department for Communities and Local Government
Halifax First-Time Buyer Review
This bi-annual report by the Halifax says that in the first half of 2014, the number of first-time buyers reached the highest level since 2007. 144,500 buyers is an increase of 25% on the first half of 2013.
In the year to June 2014, 45% of the 297,700 House Purchase loans were made to first-time buyers, which is a new record high, and is 28% higher than the previous year.
Nationally, 46% of all home-purchases in the first six months of 2014 were by first-time buyers, and 60% of those were above the £125k stamp duty threshold.
Regionally, 99% of first-time buyers in London and 90% of those in the South-East had to pay stamp duty, whereas in Northern Ireland, only 18% of house purchases incurred the tax.
Still regionally, looking at the House Price to Average Earnings Ratio, the most affordable places currently for first-time buyers are Copeland in the North West and West Dunbartonshire in Scotland, where the ratio is 2.7 times earnings. The least affordable places are in London, where Hammersmith and Fulham’s ratio is a huge 12.3.
In Q2 2014, on average, first-time buyers in London paid £306,354 for their property, stumping up a deposit of £76,435. In the North of England, the average price paid was £110,410, with £93,849 on a mortgage. Although the average house price in Northern Ireland was lower (£96,782), the average deposit paid was higher (£19,356).
Finally, the average age of a first-time buyer in London is 32, but in Wales and the North, it is 28.
Source: Halifax
New Home Registration figures
NHBC New Home Statistics Review of Q2 2014 (published 1st August) show a 3% increase in the number of new homes registered in the UK, compared to Q2 2013 (from 35,683 to 36,858).
New Home registrations in the private sector grew by 9% (37,527) while the public sector registrations fell by 11% (9,331) between Q2 2013 and Q2 2014.
In June, there was an increase of 14% over the previous June.
Regionally, Scotland had 12% fewer than Q2 2013, and Northern Ireland (inc Isle of Man) had 20% fewer. Wales saw no change at all whereas England rose by 0.5% overall.
Within England, the South East’s rose by 48%, the East Midlands’ by 38%, and Yorkshire & Humberside’s by 30%. All the other regions saw fewer registrations in the quarter, with the North East seeing the biggest fall of 19%.
Analysing by property type, 32% of the new homes registered were Flats and/or maisonettes. Only 2% were bungalows. This has been fairly consistent over the past few years.
In Q1 2014, 32% of new home buyers were aged between 25 and 34 years. 22% were over 55, and 7% were under 25 years of age.
Of the 423 under 25s, 117 bought terraced houses and only 94 bought flats or maisonettes. However, in the over 55s group, 504 of the 1,970 bought flats, and 169 bought terraced houses.
Source: NHBC
Next Monthly Market Fact File due in September 2014.