Bank Lending Rate
The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee has confirmed that the Bank Base Rate is to remain at 0.5% for a further month. It has been at this very low level for a record period, i.e. since 05th March, 2009.
Source: Bank of England
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HOUSE PRICE INDICES – some show actual prices and others show asking prices.
This month the average house price in England ranges from 167k (Land Registry) to 248k (Office for National Statistics). Not all indices show an increase in the month, but they do over the past year.
ONS House Price Index figures.
Figures for the year to November 2013, published by the Office for National Statistics on 14th January 2014, show that house prices increased by 5.4% over the year, to an average of £248k..
First-time buyer’s average house price paid in November was £187k. Over the year, this is an increase of 5.9%. Existing owners paid an average of £284k in October, an increase of 5.1% over the year.
The average price paid for a new-build dwelling was £226k in November, which is an increase of 2.0% on last November. The average price paid for a pre-owned building was £250k, which is 5.7% higher than the previous year.
Source: ONS
Land Registry’s Property Prices in England and Wales
The Average price of a property in England and Wales is now £167,353 as at the end of December 2013, according to the report published on 29th January 2014.
The Monthly change in December in England and Wales was a 1.1% rise.
The Annual change to December in England and Wales was a rise of 4.4%.
Source: Land Registry
Halifax House Price Index – December 2013 figures.
The average price of a house by the end of December 2013 was £173,467, according to the Halifax House Price Index published 8th January 2014. House prices in December were 0.6% lower than in November, but the quarterly figure was up by 1.9%. The seasonally adjusted figures show that house prices are 7.5% higher than at this time last year, measured by the average for the latest quarter against the same period a year earlier.
Source: Halifax
Halifax House Price Index – January 2014 figures.
The average price of a house by the end of January 2014 was £175,546, according to the Halifax House Price Index published 6th February 2014. House prices in January were 1.1% higher than in December, and the quarterly figure was up by 1.9%. The seasonally adjusted figures show that house prices are 7.3% higher than at this time last year, measured by the average for the latest quarter against the same period a year earlier.
Source: Halifax
Nationwide House Price Index figures
Nationwide House Price Index figures published on 29th January 2014 showed that the average cost of a home in the UK, after seasonal adjustment, was £176,491 during the month of January. This is an increase from December of 0.7%, and an annual rise of 8.8%.
Source: Nationwide
Rightmove House Price Index figures
Rightmove’s January survey (published 20th January 2014) shows the asking price of a typical UK property in the period from 9th December 2013 to 11th January 2014 was £243,861, a rise of 1.0% on the previous month. House asking prices are 6.3% higher than a year ago.
Source: Rightmove
Acadata House Price Index figures
LSL Property Services/Acadata December figures, published 10th January 2014, show that the average house price in England and Wales was £240,134 in the month. This is only a 0.6% increase from November, but a 5.2% rise since last December
Source: Acadata Ltd
Land Registry figures including Repossessions.
The headline figures in the December 2013 report are altered when repossession data is included – the average house price in December is then £166,282: 1.2% up on November 2013 and 4.9% up on December 2012.
In the months from July to October, the number of repossessions averaged 1,182 per month. In the same period last year, the average was 1,576 per month.
There was a total reduction in the number of repossession sales over the year to October 2013 of 31% – 1,636 to 1,129. Regional analysis shows that at the extremes, the South West and East Midlands had 39% fewer repossession sales compared to last October, whereas Wales had 8% fewer.
Source: Land Registry
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HOUSE PRICES ANALYSED REGIONALLY ACROSS ENGLAND AND WALES
Mixed fortunes for Yorkshire & Humberside, and the North/South divide is increasing.
ONS House Price Index regional figures.
The average house price in England in November 2013 was £258k, £167k in Wales, £131k in Northern Ireland and £184k in Scotland.
Over the year to November 2013, England’s rise was 5.6% and Wales’ by 5.4%.
Northern Ireland’s rose by 3.3% and Scotland’s rose by 2.5%.
Splitting England into regions, London’s prices rose by 11.6% over the year, while the South East and the West Midlands regions rose by 4.5% and 4.4% respectively. The smallest rise was 0.6% in the North West.
Source: ONS
Regional trends in Rightmove Estate Agents Asking House Prices in England and Wales.
Rightmove’s January survey shows the asking price of a typical UK property in the period from 9th December 2013 to 11th January 2014 as £243,861.
There were only 2 regions with decreases over this period, and only 1 decrease over the year.
The largest monthly increase was in Yorkshire & Humberside, where asking prices rose by 4.5% over the period from £148,692 to £155,371. The annual change there was a rise of 6.8%.
The monthly decreases were in the the North and East Anglia. Average prices there fell by 1.0%, from £138,179 to £136,786, and from £225,511 to £225,015 respectively. The annual changes there are -0.1% and 5.6% respectively. The North therefore was the only region to see prices fall both monthly and annually.
The largest annual rise was Greater London, where prices rose by 7.0% over the year from £480,890 to an average of £514,704. The monthly increase was 0.2%.
Source: Rightmove
Regional Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in England and Wales.
The Land Registry’s December survey shows the prices of a typical UK property per region as follows:
The largest monthly increase was in London, which saw an increase over the month of 2.6%, bringing the average house price in the capital to £403,792. This is 11.2% higher than this time last year – the largest annual rise of all the regions.
The largest monthly decrease in price is in Yorkshire & Humberside, where the average price fell 1.2% to £116,012, although this is 0.5% higher than a year ago.
The only annual drop in prices was in the North East, where prices fell by 0.1% to £97,596, although the monthly change was a rise of 1.3%.
Source: Land Registry
Analysis of Acadata HPI by region
The latest figures show that by November 2013, all of the ten regions specified had an increase in house prices both monthly and annually.
The largest rise in the month was Greater London – up 1.0% to an average of £472,166. The annual rise here was 9.3%, which is the largest of all the annual rises.
Yorkshire & Humberside saw the only monthly fall – a 0.2% decrease to £157,464. However, this is 2.0% higher than last year.
The North saw a the smallest annual rise in average house prices of 0.9% to £143,161 – this is 0.1% higher than last month. There were no falls over the year.
Source: Acadata
Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in England and Wales by County/Unitary authority.
The Land Registry’s December survey shows the prices of a typical UK property per county or unitary authority as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is Neath Port Talbot, where the average price is up by 3.3% to £84,815. This is 1.6% higher than last year.
The greatest monthly decrease in price was Blaenau Gwent, where prices fell by 3.8% to an average of £66,920. This is 1.4% lower than last year.
The largest annual rise was once again Greater London, where prices rose by 11.2% to £403,792. This is 2.6% up on last month.
The largest annual fall was in Hartlepool, where prices fell by 6.6% to £70,350. This is 1.6% lower than November.
Five counties / authorities saw no price movement in the month.
Source: Land Registry
Analysis of Acadata HPI data by County/Unitary Authority
The unitary authority with the largest increase in house prices in November 2013 was Monmouthshire, where average prices rose by 3.5% to £222,474. The annual change there was a fall of 4.0%.
Next is Windsor & Maidenhead, where prices rose by 3.3% (4.4% annual rise) to an average of £456,956.
Denbighshire saw the largest decrease in average prices in the month – down 2.1% to £142,233. The annual change was a rise of 3.0%.
Annually, the largest rise in average prices was Poole, where they rose by 12.9% to £304,859. However, there was a fall of 1.7% over the month.
The largest annual decrease was Flintshire, where prices fell by 6.7% to £149,776. This is a drop of 0.7% over the month.
Source: Acadata
Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices by Metropolitan District.
The Land Registry’s December survey shows the average prices of property by Metropolitan District as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase are in Oldham and Sunderland, where the average prices are up by 1.9% to £80,334 and £85,147 respectively.
The greatest monthly decrease in price is in Barnsley, where prices fell by 1.8% to an average of £84,781. This is 0.5% lower than last year.
The largest annual rise is in Manchester, where prices rose by 7.5% to an average of £96,458. This is 1.6% higher than last month.
The largest annual falls were Knowsley’s and Rotherham’s – average prices fell by 3.4% over the year to £95,379 and £96,590 respectively.
Source: Land Registry
Rightmove’s analysis of asking prices by London Borough.
In the period from 9th December 2013 to 11th January 2014, the largest increase in asking prices was in Tower Hamlets, where they rose by 3.6% to an average of £531,917. The annual rise was 24.7% – the largest annual increase.
The greatest decrease in asking prices was in Westminster, where they fell by 8.3% in the month to £1,392,055. They fell by 3.6% over the year.
Once again, Haringey saw an annual decrease, where average asking prices fell by 9.8% over the year to £517,634. The monthly change there was a fall of 4.4%.
Source: Rightmove
Acadata data analysed by London Borough
Over the month to November 2013, overall house prices in London increased by 1.0%. Over the year, the change is a 9.3% rise.
Enfield had the largest rise: up 4.1% to £319,307. The annual rise here was 9.5%.
At the other end of the scale, the City of London saw the greatest fall in prices in the month: down 7.0% to £663,101. The annual change was a rise of 34.1%. However, transaction volumes are low here, making for volatile changes.
Excluding the City of London, the City of Westminster saw the greatest decrease in house prices: down 2.0% over the month to £1,211,183. The annual change here was a drop of 3.2%. This was the only borough with a decrease over the year.
Comparing November 2012 to November 2013, excluding City of London – see paragraph above – Hounslow saw the greatest increase: up 24.7% to £440,615.
Barking & Dagenham remains the cheapest borough in terms of house prices at an average of £184,385, although this is 1.2% higher than October, and 0.9% higher than last year.
Source: Acadata
Analysis of Land Registry’s House Prices in Greater London.
The Land Registry’s December survey shows the average prices of property per London Borough as follows:
The greatest monthly price increase is in Hackney - the borough saw a rise of 2.6% in December. The average price is now £502,129, which is 17.2% higher than last year – the highest annual rise of all the boroughs.
There were no decreases in price either monthly nor annually, but Hounslow and Merton saw the smallest monthly rise (0.1% to £312,625 and £385,583 respectively), and Harrow saw the smallest annual rise (2.3% to £312,625).
Source: Land Registry
RICS Survey Overview.
The RICS Residential Market Survey for December 2013 (published 16th January 2014) says that the “lack of supply [is] continuing to drive price expectations” and that “sales and price expectations remain very firm”.
Once again, London and the South East saw the largest price rises over the month, and the North saw the smallest rise in prices.
The East Midlands had the highest level of agreed sales in December, with every area seeing a rise, although London and the South East were the lowest.
The North and the East Midlands had the highest level of new buyer enquiries in the month, followed closely by the West Midlands. All regions saw a rise in this indicator, with East Anglia seeing the lowest of the regions..
The highest levels of new vendor instructions were – by a large margin – in Scotland. East Anglia, the West Midlands, London and the South East were the only regions to see a decrease in the month.
Source: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors
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PROPERTY TYPES – The prices of all types of property are rising, although Flats/Apartments seem to be rising faster than Detached, Semi-detached and Terraced properties.
Rightmove’s Asking Prices by Property Type
In the year to 11th January 2014, the average change over all property types was an increase of 6.3%. All types of property (which Rightmove classify) are higher than last year.
- Flats’ and Apartments’ asking prices rose by 8.7% to £217,406.
- Terraced properties’ prices rose by 5.8% to £191,384.
- Detached property asking prices rose by 8.6% to £361,672.
- Semi-Detached properties’ prices rose by 5.0% to £206,758.
Source: Rightmove
Land Registry’s Average Prices by Property Type
The Land Registry’s December average price figures analysed by property type show that the prices over all types of property rose by 4.4% in the year since December 2012. The average price is now £167,353.
- Flats & Maisonette properties rose by 5.8% to £159,900
- Terraced properties rose by 3.5% to £125,675
- Detached properties rose by 4.4% to £263,040
- Semi-detached properties rose by 4.3% to £158,771.
Source: Land Registry
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MORTGAGE FIGURES
Mortgage Lending by the Major UK Lenders
According to the latest quarterly publication from the Bank of England, (Trends in Lending January 2014, covering the quarter to November 2013), the major UK lenders comprising Banco Santander, Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group, Nationwide and Royal Bank of Scotland, the number of mortgage approvals for house purchase was 67.1k in September, 68.0k in October and 70.8k in November . Remortgaging numbered 35.2k in September, 35.1k in October and 34.6k in November. The report states that mortgage approvals for house purchase continued to rise in the quarter – up 19% on the same period in 2012. Also, the number of approvals for remortgaging rose by 15% on the same quarter last year.
Source: Bank of England
New Mortgages granted – November Actual Figures
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that 60,000 loans were made in November for house purchase, worth £9.4 billion. This is lower than October in number by 1.0% and in value by 2.1%. However, these figures are up 14.9% and 22.0% (respectively) than last November’s figures.
Of these, first-time buyer loans totalled 27,000, valued at £3.7 billion, which is slightly up by 0.7% in number but the same in value on last month. However, this 24.4% higher in number and 37.0% higher in value, compared to last November’s figures.
Home movers’ loans totalled £5.7 billion, and numbered 33,000. These figures are 2.4% lower than October’s in terms of number, and 3.4% lower in value. These figures are up 8.2% in number and 16.3% in value on last November.
The number and value of remortgage loans also fell in the month – 27,500 loans worth £4.1 billion were made in November. These figures are 2.8% lower than last month’s in terms of volume and 2.4% lower in value. However, this was a rise of 4.2% in number, and a rise of 20.6% in value over the year.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders
New Mortgages granted – December Estimates
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that December’s estimated figure for gross mortgage lending in the UK is £17.0 billion. This is the same as November’s figure, but a rise of 49% from last December’s £11.4 billion. This is the highest December total since 2007.
In Q4 of 2013, total lending is estimated at £52 billion: 5% higher than Q3, and 38% higher than Q4 2012. This is the highest quarter since Q3 of 2008.
The estimated total for 2013 is £177 billion, an increase of 23.8% on 2012’s £143 billion.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders
Buy-to-Let Mortgages
The Council of Mortgage Lenders reports that during November 2013, the total advanced on buy-to-let mortgages was £2.1 billion (16,200 loans). This is the same as October in number and in value from October.
Just over half of the buy-to-let loans were for house purchase: 8,400 loans worth £1.0 billion – an decrease of 1.2% in number, but the same in value on the previous month.
Loans for remortgaging totalled 7,700 loans worth £1.1 billion, a rise of 1.3% in number but the same value as October.
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders
Outstanding Mortgage Debt
The average outstanding mortgage for the 11.2m households who currently have mortgages is estimated at £113,932 by the end of December 2013.
Outstanding secured (on dwellings) lending in the UK totalled £1.277 trillion at the end of December 2013. This is up from the previous December’s £1,267 billion.
Source: The Money Charity
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TRANSACTION VOLUMES & OTHER FIGURES
Latest Property Sales Volumes by price range
According to the Land Registry’s December Report, in October 2013, 71,929 sales transactions took place in England and Wales, and 9,903 in London. This represents a rise of 21% in England & Wales, and of 22% in London since last October’s figures, (59,213 and 8,126 respectively).
Compared to last October, in the price bracket of over £1 million, the sales volume in London increased from 438 to 604 – a rise of 38%, and in England & Wales it increased from 651 to 913 – a rise of 40%.
At the other end of the market (up to £250k), the volume rose by 18.0% in England & Wales (from 43,059 last October to 50,807 this October), but it fell by 11.0% in London (from 3,078 to 2,738).
Source: Land Registry
Land Registry Quarterly Sales Volumes
In the quarter from July to October 2013 (the latest for which figures are available), the average number of property transactions per month was 72,507. This is up 22.8% on the same period a year ago, when the average was 59,065 sales per month.
Source: Land Registry
Hometrack Monthly House Price Survey Figures
January’s survey (published 3rd February 2014) shows that house prices increased by 0.3% in the month.
The average amount of time that a house is on the market has remained at 8.0 weeks. Regionally, this ranges from 2.7 weeks in London to 11.7 weeks in the North East.
On average, 95.3% of the asking price is achieved, ranging from 98.0% in Greater London, down to 93.2% in the North East.
29.7% of postcode districts reported a price increase in January, lower than December’s 38.9% and much lower than November’s 45.8%. 5.3% had a price decrease over the month, up from December’s 3.9%.
Source: Hometrack
NHBC Figures for new homes
NHBC have released figures for new homes registered for the rolling quarter October to December 2013.
32,675 new homes have been registered in this period, compared to 24,567 in the same period last year – a 33% rise.
The figures are 23,598 in the private sector, and 9,077 public sector: an increase of 31% and 37% respectively on the same period 2012.
Regional analysis shows that all regions except Wales saw a rise in registrations in this three month period (Wales’ registrations fell from 896 to 856). The largest increase was Scotland, where registrations increased by 24.2% from 1,677 to 2,082, (although The Isle of Man figure rose from 10 to 26, a rise of 160%!).
Within England, Merseyside saw the greatest rise in registrations – up 95% to 427 in this period compared to 219 in the same period a year ago, although this was the region with the fewest registrations overall.
Taking 2013 as a whole, 133,670 new UK homes were registered – this is an increase of 28% on 2012’s figure of 104,514. This is an increase of 25% in the private sector and 37% in the public sector.
Source: NHBC
Next Monthly Market Fact File due in March 2014.