There may be some relief to the tired housing market now that inflation levels are falling and the general election has taken place, and experts are predicting a boost in activity. We look at the impact the general election has so far had on the housing market.
Mortgage interest rates are determined by the base rate set by the Bank of England, and have steadily risen from a low of 0.1% in March 2020. The good news this month is that the base rate has finally been reduced and is currently set at 5%. Some have suggested that the decision to reduce the bank rate was delayed until after the general election and industry experts now predict that interest rates could further reduce by the end of 2024.
The new government will achieve kudos as interest rates are reduced and consumers benefit from the resultant lower mortgage interest rates. Average house prices declined in the eight months to March 2024 and have been subdued since, but the rate change will likely have a positive effect on housing market activity. Agents predict an improved outlook, with perhaps a 2.5% increase in the price of an average home over the remainder of the year.
Mortgage interest rates remain key to any improvement in the housing market, although general elections have a history of influencing the property market.
In the lead up to an election, the number of property transactions tend to slow down due to financial uncertainty and the resultant hesitancy of buyers and sellers to commit without knowing what the future may hold. However, after an election there is typically an increase in market activity (you may recall the “Boris bounce” of 2019).
The timing of an election also has an effect, as property transactions have a natural tendency to increase at the beginning of spring. With the exception, that is, of spring 2020 when Covid hit. Generally, 27% of all house sales take place during the spring period.
Less positive for first time buyers is the government’s July announcement that it will not keep the temporary nil rate band for stamp duty, currently set at £425,000, which will revert to £300,000 in April 2025.
Other announcements, such as the Freedom to Buy Scheme and an increase in the stamp duty surcharge paid by overseas buyers, are not new ideas and are therefore likely to have little effect on the housing market.