Want to know shat’s going on with the housing market? We take a brief look into the housing market to help you decide whether to buy, sell or sit on your hands.
The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicts that, from 2025, house prices will rise every year by a higher than expected amount of 2.5%, as a result of the Autumn Budget.
Rises before 2025 are likely to be more modest due to higher mortgage rates and inflation. This contrasts with stated rises so far this year, which have been in the region of 3% and driven by pre-budget increases in wages and lower interest rates.
By 2028, the OBR estimates that the average house price is predicted to be £310,000 which is in the region of 2.5% higher than previous estimates.
Mortgage rates are predicted to rise from the present level of 3.7% to 4.5% by 2027. However, since 85% of mortgages are set at a fixed rate, this will impact on the housing market in a flattened manner. According to the Bank of England, most fixed rate mortgages are already toward the top figure, so the average mortgage payer will not notice a great difference. Overall, those who have to renegotiate their mortgages before the end of 2026 may see an increase in the region of 0.3%.
The OBR sees an increase in quarterly property transactions from around 275,000 in 2024 to 350,000 for the last quarter of 2028. It states that a higher than anticipated demand has been prevalent in 2024, which has not been satisfied due to fewer additions to the housing stock than expected. This has had the effect of dampening growth in the short and medium term. Due to the new National Planning Policy Framework, the growth could accelerate, bringing the total number of new homes to about 1.3 million by 2029.
Head of mortgages at the Halifax, Amanda Bryden, said that the UK housing market was doing very well and that prices were at an all-time high in October, with only a slight decrease in November due to the headwind of higher interest rates.
Rightmove’s Tim Bannister was less positive, and believes the latest announcement to increase stamp duty might have a negative impact on housing sales figures, especially as a result of the new increase to 5% for purchasers of second homes. He did add, however, that there was some optimism and that, by 2025, home affordability would be improved for most people.